Data-related and methodological obstacles to determining associations between temperature and COVID-19 transmission

Abstract

More and more studies have evaluated the associations between ambient temperature and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, most of these studies were rushed to completion, rendering the quality of their findings questionable. We systematically evaluated 70 relevant peer-reviewed studies published on or before 21 September 2020 that had been implemented from community to global level. Approximately 35 of these reports indicated that temperature was significantly and negatively associated with COVID-19 spread, whereas 12 reports demonstrated a significantly positive association. The remaining studies found no association or merely a piecewise association. Correlation and regression analyses were the most commonly utilized statistical models. The main shortcomings of these studies included uncertainties in COVID-19 infection rate, problems with data processing for temperature, inappropriate controlling for confounding parameters, weaknesses in evaluation of effect modification, inadequate statistical models, short research periods, and the choices of research areal units. It is our viewpoint that most studies of the identified 70 publications have had significant flaws that have prevented them from providing a robust scientific basis for the association between temperature and COVID-19.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• temperature
• transmission
• methodological concerns
• data uncertainties