Predicting Runoff from the Weigan River under Climate Change

Abstract

With the warming and humidification process in the Northwest Arid Zone over the past 30 years, the runoff of a vast majority of rivers has been affected to different degrees. In this paper, the runoff from the Weigan River, a typical inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China, is taken as an example, and seven types of CMIP6 data are selected with the help of a SWAT model to predict the runoff volume of the Weigan River in the next 30 years under climate change. The results show that (1) the SWAT model can simulate the runoff from the Weigan River well and has good applicability in this study area. (2) With an increase in radiative forcing, the temperature, precipitation and runoff in the study area show an increasing trend. (3) Under the four radiative forcing scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the runoff from the Weigan River out of the mountain is predicted to be maintained at 25.68 to 30.89 × 108 m3, which is an increase of 1.35% to 21.91% compared with the current runoff, of which the contribution to the increase in future runoff caused by the changes in temperature and precipitation is 68.71% and 27.24%, respectively. It is important to explore the impact of climate change on the runoff from the Weigan River to understand the impact of climate change on the Northwest Arid Region scientifically and rationally, and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the risk of climate change and formulating policies to deal with it.

Keywords

• CMIP6
• model evaluation
• SWAT model
• deviation correction
• Weigan River Basin