Enhancing Diffusion of Innovation through Operational Analysis of Agent-Based Modelling

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to introduce a method to improve innovation diffusion by using agent-based modeling. In this regard, an operational analysis to create agent-based modeling is investigated. agent-based model of this research is carried out in combination with the bass model. in this model, inputs include advertising effects and word-of-mouth effects estimated using the bass diffusion model. output of the model is also the total number of innovation adopters at each time step in the potential market that has been validated after the model has been correspond to real data (diffusion of television in Iran). to be more correspondent to real-world, the agent-based model is developed by preferential attachment-based network. after creating the model, the validation and verification were carried out by experiments and the operational analysis of the agent-based modeling. after model validation, we examine our method (using artificial innovators) for improving the diffusion of innovation. after validating the model, the proposed method for improving innovation diffusion through ten scenarios is investigated. in addition, a proposed criterion for analyzing the output of the innovation diffusion is presented, which is used to analyze the outputs. after the analysis, the method of artificial innovators was effective.

Keywords

• operational analysis
• agent-based modeling
• diffusion of innovation marketing
• bass model
• artificial innovators