Detectability of low-viscosity zone along lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary beneath the Nankai Trough, Japan, based on high-fidelity viscoelastic simulation

Abstract

Abstract After the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, a seafloor observation system observed rapid landward deformation. These seafloor observation data are potentially explicable via modeling of a low-viscosity zone under the subducting plate, called the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB). However, the effect of a low-viscosity LAB has not been empirically examined in past earthquakes because of the absence of seafloor observation data, which are expected to have high sensitivity in the detection of a low-viscosity LAB. The Nankai Trough, southwest Japan, is one location where seafloor geodetic stations are in operation that could detect a low-viscosity LAB after a future earthquake. Therefore, we quantitatively model how the low-viscosity of the LAB is expected to affect postseismic crustal deformation following an anticipated future large earthquake under the Nankai Trough. Calculating viscoelastic deformation using a model that takes into account the realistic crustal structure in the southwestern Japanese Archipelago, we examine the effects of LAB viscosity on surface deformation patterns. The results show for very low LAB viscosities ( $$2.5 \times 10^{17}$$ 2.5 × 10 17 Pa s), rapid landward displacement as large as 38 cm/yr occurs in the offshore area, with uplift and subsidence patterns highly dependent on the viscosity structure. Especially in the first year after the earthquake, the difference in deformation between the cases with and without a low-viscosity LAB was much larger than the observational error level of the current seafloor observation system. For such low LAB viscosities, the probability of detection is therefore high. On the other hand, for moderately low LAB viscosities ( $$2.5 \times 10^{18}$$ 2.5 × 10 18 Pa s), the deformation patterns in the cases with and without a low-viscosity LAB are similar. Indeed, the difference in displacement lies within the observational error level of the current observational network, so detection is expected to be difficult for a LAB of only moderately low-viscosity. However, such a LAB may be detected by improving observational accuracy in the Global Navigation Satellite System–acoustic observation technique by performing more frequent measurements. Additional detection potential lies in expected future accuracy improvements in vertical displacement estimates at the DONET stations. Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Nankai megathrust earthquake
• Low-viscosity zone
• Viscoelastic finite-element simulation
• Seafloor observation
• High-performance computing