Statistical models of renewable energy intermittency

Abstract

One of the big mitigating factors of intermittency is the smoothing effect of geographical distribution of variable renewable energy (VRE ) plants on the aggregate power output of VRE generation on a utility network. The greater the distance between two renewable plants, the less likely their output is to be affected by the same weather event (e.g. cloud coverage, storms, dust storms). This is similarly the case for smaller timescales. Further, different technologies can often be uncorrelated or even negatively correlated (e.g. wind and solar) which reduces the integration cost. In this article analyzed and quantify the expected intermittency in Uzbekistan focusing on the geographical dispersion by looking at various sites as well as by looking at a portfolio composed of different technologies.