Spatiotemporal Variability of the Bioclimatic Potential in the Central Chernozem Region

Abstract

This article examines the bioclimatic potential (BCP) (according to S.A. Sapozhnikova) and agroclimatic characteristics of the Central Chernozem Region, including the Oryol oblast, with spatiotemporal trends of their variability analyzed from 1980 to 2021. In the early 2000s, compared to the late 20th century, there was a 10% increase in the BCP, a 13% rise in the sum of active temperatures, and a 6% longer active growing season. Furthermore, shifts in the isolines of the sum of active temperatures and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) occurred. The active temperature isotherm of 3000°C moved northward, and it is now running through the Belgorod and Voronezh oblast. As a result of the observed hydrothermal conditions, a significant part of the Central Chernozem transitioned from the zone with sufficient moisture (1.3 ≥ HTC > 1) to an arid zone (1 ≥ HTC > 0.7). The overall growth of the BCP in the Central Chernozem Region can be associated with a considerable rise in the sum of active temperatures and a reduction in moisture supply.

Keywords

• climate quality
• hydrothermal coefficient
• heat supply
• moisture coefficient
• climate change
• spatial model
• geographic information system (gis)
• central chernozem region