iScience (Dec 2022)
Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines
- Emily G. Simmonds,
- Kwaku Peprah Adjei,
- Christoffer Wold Andersen,
- Janne Cathrin Hetle Aspheim,
- Claudia Battistin,
- Nicola Bulso,
- Hannah M. Christensen,
- Benjamin Cretois,
- Ryan Cubero,
- Iván A. Davidovich,
- Lisa Dickel,
- Benjamin Dunn,
- Etienne Dunn-Sigouin,
- Karin Dyrstad,
- Sigurd Einum,
- Donata Giglio,
- Haakon Gjerløw,
- Amélie Godefroidt,
- Ricardo González-Gil,
- Soledad Gonzalo Cogno,
- Fabian Große,
- Paul Halloran,
- Mari F. Jensen,
- John James Kennedy,
- Peter Egge Langsæther,
- Jack H. Laverick,
- Debora Lederberger,
- Camille Li,
- Elizabeth G. Mandeville,
- Caitlin Mandeville,
- Espen Moe,
- Tobias Navarro Schröder,
- David Nunan,
- Jorge Sicacha-Parada,
- Melanie Rae Simpson,
- Emma Sofie Skarstein,
- Clemens Spensberger,
- Richard Stevens,
- Aneesh C. Subramanian,
- Lea Svendsen,
- Ole Magnus Theisen,
- Connor Watret,
- Robert B. O’Hara
Affiliations
- Emily G. Simmonds
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway; The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway; Corresponding author
- Kwaku Peprah Adjei
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway; The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Christoffer Wold Andersen
- Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Janne Cathrin Hetle Aspheim
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway; The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Claudia Battistin
- Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
- Nicola Bulso
- Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
- Hannah M. Christensen
- Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 3PU, UK
- Benjamin Cretois
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, PO Box 5685, Torgarden, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7485, Norway
- Ryan Cubero
- Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
- Iván A. Davidovich
- Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
- Lisa Dickel
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway; Institute for Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Benjamin Dunn
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway; Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
- Etienne Dunn-Sigouin
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bergen, Vestland 5838, Norway
- Karin Dyrstad
- Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Sigurd Einum
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Donata Giglio
- The Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0311, USA
- Haakon Gjerløw
- Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo, Østlandet 0186, Norway
- Amélie Godefroidt
- KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
- Ricardo González-Gil
- Observatorio Marino de Asturias (OMA), Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, University of Oviedo, 33071 Oviedo, Spain
- Soledad Gonzalo Cogno
- Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
- Fabian Große
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanarkshire G1 1XH, UK; Federal Institute of Hydrology, Department of Microbial Ecology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz, Germany
- Paul Halloran
- Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon EX4 4SB, UK
- Mari F. Jensen
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway
- John James Kennedy
- Met Office, Exeter Devon EX1 3PB, UK
- Peter Egge Langsæther
- Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Østlandet 0317, Norway
- Jack H. Laverick
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanarkshire G1 1XH, UK
- Debora Lederberger
- Schweizerisches Epilepsie Zentrum, Klinik Lengg, Zürich 8008, Switzerland
- Camille Li
- NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bergen, Vestland 5838, Norway; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway
- Elizabeth G. Mandeville
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
- Caitlin Mandeville
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway; Department of Natural History, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Espen Moe
- Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Tobias Navarro Schröder
- Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
- David Nunan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX2 6GG, UK
- Jorge Sicacha-Parada
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway; The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Melanie Rae Simpson
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7030, Norway; Clinical Research Unit Central Norway, St Olavs University Hospital, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7030, Norway
- Emma Sofie Skarstein
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway
- Clemens Spensberger
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway
- Richard Stevens
- Oxford Institute for Digital Health, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX2 6GG, UK
- Aneesh C. Subramanian
- The Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0311, USA
- Lea Svendsen
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway
- Ole Magnus Theisen
- Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway; Norwegian Labour Inspectorate Authority, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7012, Norway
- Connor Watret
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanarkshire G1 1XH, UK
- Robert B. O’Hara
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway; The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 25,
no. 12
p. 105512
Abstract
Summary: Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the “sources of uncertainty” framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.
