Transportation Engineering (Dec 2022)
Is it the end of combustion and engine combustion research? Should it be?
Abstract
The dominant narrative in the affluent west is that climate change poses an “existential threat” and very rapid cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and hence fossil fuel use are needed to avoid it. Simultaneously oil, gas, coal, aviation, steel and cement industries and livestock farming have to be largely shut down to eliminate GHG. This review argues that globally all this will not happen by 2050, let alone 2030 because the scale of the problem is too large. Transport is particularly difficult to decarbonize and current policies focusing entirely on battery electric vehicles will not and must not succeed. GHG levels are unlikely to come down significantly in the next several decades and even if they did, extreme weather events will not disappear. It is better to recognize such realities and make societies more resilient to the effects of climate change. Humanity will have to adapt to any further warming as it has successfully done with the previous warming of about 1.1 C over the past century. Combustion research, particularly of fossil fuels and in internal combustion engines is currently seen as unnecessary in many countries. However, it will be absolutely necessary, along with the development of the alternatives in order to ensure that energy use is improved since combustion will continue to be central to supplying global energy and driving transport for decades to come. The gap between current policies and reality will perhaps be bridged as energy security concerns come to the fore.
