Applying different resampling strategies in machine learning models to predict head-cut gully erosion susceptibility

Abstract

Gully erosion is one of the advanced forms of water erosion. Identifying the effective factors and gully erosion predicting is one of the important tools to control and manage such phenomenon. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of four different resampling algorithms including cross-validation (5-fold and 10-fold) and bootstrapping (Bootstrap and Optimism bootstrap) on boosted regression tree (BRT), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) models in spatial modeling and evaluation of head-cut gully erosion in Konduran watershed. For this purpose, based on an extensive field survey, the points of the head-cut of the gully erosion were identified first, and a map of the distribution of head-cut gully erosion in the study area was prepared. Then 18 variable identify and prepare as factors affecting the occurrence of head-cut gully erosion. To assess the efficiency of the models, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) were used. The results of the assessment indicated that the use of resampling algorithms increases the efficiency of the models. The integrated optimism-bootstrap-BRT, optimism-bootstrap-SVM, and Optimism-Bootstrap-RF models with AUC 0.85, 0.823 and 0.89 respectively, outperformed the cross-validation 5fold (BRT, SVM, RF), Cross-validation 10fold (BRT, SVM, RF) and Bootstrap (BRT, SVM, RF) integrated algorithms.

Keywords

• Head-cut gully erosion
• Resampling algorithms
• Bootstrap
• K-fold cross validation
• Machine learning
• Boosted regression tree