Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection against symptomatic infections and severe Covid-19 outcomes in adults aged 50 years and over, France, January to mid-December 2021

Abstract

Background: SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread despite fast vaccine rollout, which could be attributed to waning immunity or to a reduced protection against some variants. A thorough characterization of vaccine protection and its duration in time is needed to inform vaccination policies and enhance public trust. Methods: We linked three national databases with exhaustive information on screening, vaccination and hospitalizations in France from January 1st to December 12, 2021. We performed a two-step analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes of Covid-19 (requiring hospitalization) in people aged 50 years or over, combining: (i) a test-negative case–control design to assess vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infections; and (ii) a survival analysis to assess the additional protection against severe outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and inpatient deaths) in infected individuals. Findings: We found a high vaccine effectiveness in people aged 50 years or more, reaching 82% against symptomatic infections and 94% against hospitalizations, after a full vaccination scheme with the Covid-19 vaccines used in France.Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infections decreased over time, dropping to 53% after six months, but remained high against severe outcomes (90% after six months). The booster dose allowed restoring protection levels above 90% against symptomatic infections. Vaccine protection and its evolution in time, showed little difference against the variants that circulated prior to December 2021 in France, including the Delta variant. Interpretation: Though vaccine immunity decreases over time, vaccination remains crucial to provide individual protection against severe outcomes requiring hospitalization. This decline can be reversed by the receipt of a booster dose.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• Vaccine
• Effectiveness
• Booster
• Real-world estimates