Floating in the air: forecasting allergenic pollen concentration for managing urban public health

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe presence of airborne allergenic pollen causes a variety of immune reactions and respiratory diseases, threatening human life in severe cases. Climate change is exacerbating the allergenic pollen-induced health risks and adding a significant economic burden to societies. Despite the pressing threats, vital health-related information is not available to the public to date, and the reshaping of future geographic allergenic pollen patterns remains unknown. To help establish a critical allergenic pollen forecasting capacity, a systematic review was conducted and three promising future directions were identified: (1) resolving heterogeneous urban plant species distribution and phenology using fine-resolution satellite constellations; (2) acquiring ancillary information about allergenic pollen and patient symptoms from emerging geospatial big data, such as social media; (3) deciphering the coupled effect of climate change and urbanization on future geographic patterns and phenology of allergenic species. On this basis, we recommend an optimized workflow that combines real-time pollen monitoring networks with high-resolution vegetation information and weather forecast systems, comprehensively considering the production and diffusion process of pollen to establish advanced prediction models. By focusing on critical knowledge gaps, this review provides much needed insight to propel the allergenic pollen forecasting research and eventually benefit the management of urban public health.

Keywords

• Aerobiology
• pollen forecasting
• urban sustainability
• big data
• public health
• machine learning