Enhancing clinical decision-making: A novel nomogram for stratifying cancer-specific survival in middle-aged individuals with follicular thyroid carcinoma utilizing SEER data
Chenghao Zhanghuang,
Jinkui Wang,
Fengming Ji,
Zhigang Yao,
Jing Ma,
Yu Hang,
Jinrong Li,
Zipeng Hao,
Yongqi Zhou,
Bing Yan
Affiliations
Chenghao Zhanghuang
Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Disease, Kunming, 650228, China; Department of Urology, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Children Urogenital Development and Tissue Engineering, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400015, China; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Children's Major Disease Research, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Clinical Medical Center for Pediatric Diseases, Kunming Children's Solid Tumor Diagnosis and Treatment Center, Kunming, 650228, China
Jinkui Wang
Department of Urology, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Children Urogenital Development and Tissue Engineering, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400015, China
Fengming Ji
Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Disease, Kunming, 650228, China
Zhigang Yao
Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Disease, Kunming, 650228, China
Jing Ma
Yunnan Key Laboratory of Children's Major Disease Research, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Clinical Medical Center for Pediatric Diseases, Kunming Children's Solid Tumor Diagnosis and Treatment Center, Kunming, 650228, China
Yu Hang
Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Disease, Kunming, 650228, China
Jinrong Li
Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Disease, Kunming, 650228, China
Zipeng Hao
Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Disease, Kunming, 650228, China
Yongqi Zhou
Department of Urology, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Children Urogenital Development and Tissue Engineering, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400015, China
Bing Yan
Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Disease, Kunming, 650228, China; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Children's Major Disease Research, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University), Yunnan Clinical Medical Center for Pediatric Diseases, Kunming Children's Solid Tumor Diagnosis and Treatment Center, Kunming, 650228, China; Corresponding author. Department of Urology, Kunming Children's Hospital(Children's Hospital affiliated to Kunming Medical University); 288 Qianxing Road, Kunming, 650228, Yunnan, China.
Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant tumor in the endocrine system, is also one of the head and neck tumor. Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma (FTC) plays an important role in the pathological classification of thyroid cancer. This study aimed to develop an innovative predictive tool, a nomogram, for predicting cancer specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged FTC patients. Methods: We collected patient data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The data from patients between 2004 and 2015 were used as the training set, and the data from patients between 2016 and 2018 were used as the validation set. To identify independent risk factors affecting patient survival, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed. Based on this, we developed a nomogram model aimed at predicting CSS in middle-aged patients with FTC. The consistency index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the accuracy and confidence of the model. Results: A total of 2470 patients were enrolled in this study, in which patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (N = 1437) and validation cohort (N = 598), and patients from 2016 to 2018 were assigned to the external validation cohort (N = 435) in terms of time. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marriage, histological grade and TNM stage were independent risk factors for survival. The C-index for the training cohort was 0.866 (95 % CI: 0.805–0.927), for the validation cohort it was 0.944 (95 % CI: 0.903–0.985), and for the external validation cohort, it reached 0.999 (95 % CI: 0.997–1.001). Calibration curves and AUC suggest that the model has good accuracy. Conclusions: We developed an innovative nomogram to predict CSS in middle-aged patients with FTC. Our model after a rigorous internal validation and external validation process, based on the time proved that the high level of accuracy and reliability. This tool helps healthcare professionals and patients make informed clinical decisions.
