Complexity Analysis of Carbon Market Using the Modified Multi-Scale Entropy

Abstract

Carbon markets provide a market-based way to reduce climate pollution. Subject to general market regulations, the major existing emission trading markets present complex characteristics. This paper analyzes the complexity of carbon market by using the multi-scale entropy. Pilot carbon markets in China are taken as the example. Moving average is adopted to extract the scales due to the short length of the data set. Results show a low-level complexity inferring that China’s pilot carbon markets are quite immature in lack of market efficiency. However, the complexity varies in different time scales. China’s carbon markets (except for the Chongqing pilot) are more complex in the short period than in the long term. Furthermore, complexity level in most pilot markets increases as the markets developed, showing an improvement in market efficiency. All these results demonstrate that an effective carbon market is required for the full function of emission trading.

Keywords

• complexity
• entropy
• carbon market
• multi-scale entropy