Dynamic analysis and optimal control of a stochastic information spreading model considering super-spreader and implicit exposer with random parametric perturbations

Abstract

Read online

Environmental factors in social systems affect information spreading at all times. This paper proposes a stochastic S2EIR model that considers the presence of super-spreaders and implicit exposers in information spreading, as well as the stochastic perturbation of model parameters. The existence of a global positive solution using the Itô′s formula is then demonstrated. Sufficient conditions for information disappearance and smooth distribution of information are calculated by using the Borel–Cantelli lemma and the strong law of large numbers. Furthermore, the optimal control strategy for the stochastic model is proposed using the Hamiltonian function. The results of the theoretical analysis are supported by numerical simulations and compared to the parameter variations of the deterministic model. The results of this study indicate that white noise facilitates the spread of information. The intensity of perturbation is proportional to the fluctuation of information spreading. Controlling random parameters can effectively facilitate the spread of information. For positive information, the randomness and complexity of the social system should be utilized to increase the spread of information. In contrast, for negative information, randomness in the social system should be suppressed to the greatest extent possible to limit information dissemination.

Keywords

• information spreading
• stochastic S2EIR model
• super-spreader and implicit exposer
• random parametric perturbations
• optimal control