Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories

Abstract

Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. Objective: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. Methods: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015-2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. Results: The majority (63Š) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015-2019 period. However, in only 27Š of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. Conclusions: In 2015-2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. Contribution: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas.

Keywords

• cohort turnover
• net migration
• working-age
• working-age population