A novel prognostic model based on AFP, tumor burden score and Albumin-Bilirubin grade for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation

Abstract

AbstractPurpose The aim of this study was to develop prognostic scores, including the tumor burden score (TBS) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, for evaluating the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after radiofrequency ablation (RFA).Materials and Methods This retrospective study enrolled treatment-naïve HCC patients with BCLC 0-A who underwent RFA between January 2009 and December 2019. Regular follow-up was conducted after RFA to determine progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The patients were randomly allocated to the training or validation datasets in a 1:1 ratio. Preoperative prognostic scores were developed based on the results of multivariate analysis. The discriminatory ability of the scores was assessed using time-dependent AUC and compared with other models.Results Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level and TBS were identified as independent prognostic factors for PFS, while serum AFP, TBS, and ALBI were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS in HCC patients after RFA. The time-dependent AUCs of the AFP-TBS score for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year PFS were 0.651, 0.667, and 0.620, respectively, in the training set, and 0.657, 0.687, and 0.704, respectively, in the validation set. For the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, the time-dependent AUCs were 0.680, 0.712, and 0.666, respectively, in the training set, and 0.712, 0.706 and 0.726 in the validation set for the AFP-TBS-ALBI score (ATA). The C-indices and AIC demonstrated that the scores provided better clinical benefits compared to other models.Conclusion The ATA/AT score, derived from clinical and objective laboratory variables, can assist in individually predicting the prognosis of HCC patients undergoing curative RFA.

Keywords

• Tumor burden
• alpha fetoprotein
• prognosis
• hepatocellular carcinoma
• radiofrequency ablation