Annals of Geophysics (Dec 2011)

Application of BET_EF at Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005)

  • Jacopo Selva,
  • Laura Sandri,
  • Rosalba Napoli,
  • Filippo Greco,
  • Salvatore Giammanco,
  • Salvatore Gambino,
  • Carmelo Ferlito,
  • Giovanni Distefano,
  • Giuseppe Di Grazia,
  • Renato Cristofolini,
  • Rosa Anna Corsaro,
  • Ornella Cocina,
  • Tommaso Caltabiano,
  • Alessandro Bonforte,
  • Daniele Andronico,
  • Stefano Gresta,
  • Salvatore Alparone,
  • Alfonso Brancato,
  • Giuseppina Tusa,
  • Marco Viccaro

DOI
https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5346
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 54, no. 5

Abstract

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Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical ‘precursor’ parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated.

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