The Assessment of Inflationary Impacts of Energy Carriers Subsidy Phase-out in Iran

Abstract

The allocation of subsidies payment has been mentioned in both articles 46 and 47 of the Third Socio-Economic, and Cultural Development Plan. The global oil price fluctuations and their direct impacts on the Iranian national budget allocations has resulted in energy subsidies payment to be one of the most challenging issues in the Iran’s economy. The objective of this research is the assessment of inflationary impacts of energy subsidy removal by using an energy input-output price model. The findings indicate that the costs of production in the different economic sectors will rise following energy prices increase. The inflationary impacts in non-metallic mineral products, forestry, and petroleum products will be the highest while the electricity price increase has dominant role in price inflation. The significant changes will happen in the macroeconomic variables such as private consumption expenditures, government consumption expenditures, gross fixed capital formation, as well as exports.