Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

Andrew Omame; Qing Han; Sarafa A. Iyaniwura; Adeniyi Ebenezer; Nicola L. Bragazzi; Xiaoying Wang; Jude D. Kong; Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima

Infectious Disease Modelling (Dec 2024)

Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

Andrew Omame,
Qing Han,
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura,
Adeniyi Ebenezer,
Nicola L. Bragazzi,
Xiaoying Wang,
Jude D. Kong,
Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima

Affiliations

Andrew Omame: Abdus Salam School of Mathematical Sciences, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan; Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria
Qing Han: Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Canada; Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network (AI4PEP), Canada
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura: Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
Adeniyi Ebenezer: Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Canada; Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network (AI4PEP), Canada
Nicola L. Bragazzi: Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Postgraduate School of Public Health, Department of Health Sciences (DISSAL), University of Genoa, 16126, Genoa, Italy; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Health Anthropology Biosphere and Healing Systems, University of Genoa, 16126, Genoa, Italy; Department of Food and Drugs, University of Parma, 43125, Parma, Italy
Xiaoying Wang: Department of Mathematics, Trent University Peterborough, Ontario, Canada
Jude D. Kong: Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Canada; Artificial Intelligence & Mathematical Modeling Lab (AIMM Lab), Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College St Room 500, Toronto, ON, M5T 3M7, Canada; Department of Mathematics, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network (AI4PEP), Canada
Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima: Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Canada; Corresponding author. Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 9, no. 4
pp. 1117 – 1137

Abstract

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The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the primary transmission route of the disease. In addition, the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected by the outbreak. This population is also disproportionately affected by HIV infection. Given that both diseases can be transmitted sexually, the endemicity of HIV, and the high sexual behavior associated with the MSM community, it is essential to understand the effect of the two diseases spreading simultaneously in an MSM population. Particularly, we aim to understand the potential effects of HIV on an mpox outbreak in the MSM population. We develop a mechanistic mathematical model of HIV and mpox co-infection. Our model incorporates the dynamics of both diseases and considers HIV treatment with anti-retroviral therapy (ART). In addition, we consider a potential scenario where HIV infection increases susceptibility to mpox, and investigate the potential impact of this mechanism on mpox dynamics. Our analysis shows that HIV can facilitate the spread of mpox in an MSM population, and that HIV treatment with ART may not be sufficient to control the spread of mpox in the population. However, we showed that a moderate use of condoms or reduction in sexual contact in the population combined with ART is beneficial in controlling mpox transmission. Based on our analysis, it is evident that effective control of HIV, specifically through substantial ART use, moderate condom compliance, and reduction in sexual contact, is imperative for curtailing the transmission of mpox in an MSM population and mitigating the compounding impact of these intertwined epidemics.

Published in Infectious Disease Modelling

ISSN: 2468-0427 (Online)
Publisher: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
Country of publisher: China
LCC subjects: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases
Website: https://www.keaipublishing.com/en/journals/infectious-disease-modelling/

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