Analysis of long-term optimal introduction of technologies for the reduction of greenhouse gas in Hokkaido

Abstract

This study analyzes cost-minimum combination of long-term introduction of technologies for the given targets of integrated CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050. The area covers all sections of power generation, industry, home & office, transportation, and others. The analysis was made with MARKAL MODEL, a linear programing model, modified to be available for renewable energies with daily and seasonal fluctuation. Input data are given from variety of official statistics. The results show the relationship between the CO2 reduction amount and the increased cost: for example, the maximum limit of the integrated CO2 reduction for the period is 38%, when the integrated total cost increases 18% compared to the case with no CO2 limitation. When the CO2 limitation becomes 20%, increased cost changes to 3%. The number itself changes in some extent depending on the input data, but it gives ideas of the trends in the total relationship. As the CO2 reduction rate increases, coal power plants are gradually replaced by combined cycle of natural gas, and then by wind and solar. The influence of the CO2 limitation is large in the home & office sector and the industry sector due to the increased cogeneration system and electricity from lower CO2 power plants. However, the CO2 emission from steel and paper industries and transportation sector remains almost same. This result in transportation sector is due to the reason that the hybrid cars take share similarly regardless of the CO2 limitation, and that electric and fuel cell cars take little share in this analysis conditions.

Keywords

• co2 reduction
• cost
• markal model
• linear programming
• energy structure
• hokkaido