A Hybrid Network Analysis and Machine Learning Model for Enhanced Financial Distress Prediction

Abstract

Financial distress prediction is crucial to financial planning, particularly amid emerging uncertainties. This study introduces a novel methodology for predicting financial distress by amalgamating network analysis and machine learning techniques. The approach involves establishing two company networks based on their similarity and correlation in crucial financial indicators. The first network reflects similarity across five features, while the second captures correlation in the most critical feature. Subsequently, seven network-centric features are extracted and integrated into the dataset as new variables. Community detection algorithms are also applied to cluster companies, with the resulting labels added as categorical variables. This process yields a modified dataset comprising both initial and network-based variables. Five classification algorithms are employed to forecast financial distress across three scenarios. Initially, models are trained using only the initial features. In subsequent scenarios, network-centric features from similarity and correlation networks are incorporated, enhancing the predictive accuracy of machine learning models. Notably, features from the similarity network play a pivotal role in this improvement. The proposed model showcases superior predictive capabilities and offers a holistic understanding of the dynamic interactions among financial entities. The results underscore the efficacy of network-based strategies in refining financial distress prediction models, providing valuable insights for decision-makers.

Keywords

• Financial distress prediction
• financial analysis
• network-based analysis
• machine learning
• classification
• community detection