MODELING AND FORECASTING THE GROSS ENROLLMENT RATIO IN ROMANIAN PRIMARY SCHOOL

Abstract

The gross enrollment ratio in primary school is one of the basic indicators used in order to evaluate the proposed objectives of the educational system. Knowing its evolution allows a more rigorous substantiation of the strategies and of the human resources politics not only from the educational field but also from the economic one. In this paper we propose an econometric model in order to describe the gross enrollment ratio in Romanian primary school and we achieve its prediction for the next years, having as a guide the Box-Jenkins’s methodology. The obtained results indicate the continuous decrease of this rate for the next years.

Keywords

• time series
• forecast
• ARIMA
• gross enrollment ratio