TEHRAN AIR POLLUTION MODELING USING LONG-SHORT TERM MEMORY ALGORITHM: AN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

Abstract

Air pollution is a major environmental issue in urban areas, and accurate forecasting of particles 10 μm or smaller (PM10) level is essential for smart public health policies and environmental management in Tehran, Iran. In this study, we evaluated the performance and uncertainty of long short-term memory (LSTM) model, along with two spatial interpolation methods including ordinary kriging (OK) and inverse distance weighting (IDW) for mapping the forecasted daily air pollution in Tehran. We used root mean square error (RMSE) and mean square error (MSE) to evaluate the prediction power of the LSTM model. In addition, prediction intervals (PIs), and Mean and standard deviation (STD) were employed to assess the uncertainty of the process. For this research, the air pollution data in 19 Tehran air pollution monitoring stations and temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction as influential factors were taken into account. The results showed that the OK had better RMSE and STD in the test (32.48 ± 9.8 μg/m3) and predicted data (56.6 ± 13.3 μg/m3) compared with those of the IDW in the test (47.7 ± 22.43 μg/m3) and predicted set (62.18 ± 26.1 μg/m3). However, in PIs, IDW ([0, 0.7] μg/m3) compared with the OK ([0, 0.5] μg/m3) had better performance. The LSTM model achieved in the predicted values an RMSE of 8.6 μg/m3 and a standard deviation of 9.8 μg/m3 and PIs between [2.7 ± 4.8, 14.9 ± 15] μg/m3.