Debt default, financial risk transmission and governance from the perspective of supply chain network

Abstract

The stock risk spillovers of 31 associated enterprises of Evergrande supply chain in China were measured with DCC-GARCH and CoVaR model, and high, moderate and low risk overflow networks in four periods were constructed, finally the overall metrics and dynamic evolution of risk spillover network were explored. The results showed that: With COVID-19 under control in China, the risk spillover of Evergrande supply chain associated enterprises continues to diverge, with the quantity and scope of high risk declining and moderate and low risk rising; The infection scope of high risk spillover has narrowed, from indirect to direct infection; Evergrande subsidiaries play obvious bridge roles in moderate and low risk networks, have strong control over the risk spread; Commercial banks suffer and trigger more risk spillovers, a number of risk spillover groups with commercial banks as cores formed in high and moderate risk networks.

Keywords

• Supply chain network
• Risk spillover
• CoVar-DCC-GARCH
• Complex network