Objective Historical reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) due to lifestyle and treatment improvements are now threatened by factors such as increasing obesity and diabetes, but the relative importance of different risk factors varies by CVD condition. This study describes secular trends in CVD events by individual condition from 2012 to 2022.Methods In a cohort of 452 094 Greater Glasgow and Clyde residents aged ≥51 years, linked hospital admission and death data were used to ascertain total annual events for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke, abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and peripheral artery disease (PAD). Poisson regressions with robust standard errors were used to examine the relative change in event rates over time, overall and by subgroup.Results Overall, the event rate ratios (RRs) for IHD, MI, AF and AAA all fell between 2012 and 2021 after adjustment for age, sex and deprivation. However, on subgroup analysis, the RRs increased between 2012 and 2022 among those aged 51–64 years for HF (RR 1.5), stroke (RR 1.4) and PAD (RR 1.8).Conclusions Overall declines in most types of CVD mask an increasing burden of events relating to HF, stroke and PAD among individuals aged 51–64 years.
