Predicting External Influences to Ship’s Average Fuel Consumption Based on Non-Uniform Time Set

Abstract

Nowadays, the impact of the ships on the World economy is enormous, considering that every ship needs fuel to sail from source to destination. It requires a lot of fuel, and therefore, there is a need to monitor and predict a ship’s average fuel consumption. However, although there are much models available to predict a ship’s consumption, most of them rely on a uniform time set. Here we show the model of predicting external influences to ship’s average fuel consumption based on a non-uniform time set. The model is based on the numeric fitting of recorded data. The first set of recorded data was used to develop the model, while the second set was used for validation. Statistical quality measures have been used to choose the optimal fitting function for the model. According to statistical measures, the Gaussian 7, Fourier 8, and smoothing spline fitting functions were chosen as optimal algorithms for model development. In addition to extensive data analysis, there is an algorithm for filter length determination for the preprocessing of raw data. This research is of interest to corporate logistics departments in charge of ensuring adequate fuel for fleets when and where required.

Keywords

• forecasting of fuel demand
• ship fuel consumption
• data fitting
• statistical quality measures
• signal processing and analysis