The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia (Mar 2025)
Unveiling the cancer epidemic in India: a glimpse into GLOBOCAN 2022 and past patternsResearch in context
Abstract
Summary: Background: The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022 estimates highlight cancer as a significant global health problem. In the South-East Asia-region, India ranks third in terms of cancer incidence, second for mortality, and 121 in terms of crude rates globally. As cancer risks increase with age, particularly affecting older individuals, this study explores the current cancer burden in India by analyzing the cancer landscape across different age groups, determining the population's risk of cancer diagnosis and death, and projecting the future cancer burden aligned with past mortality patterns. Methods: This is a comprehensive-retrospective, cross-sectional study examining 36 cancer types, by gender, and across four-distinct age groups (childhood, reproductive, middle age, geriatric) in India, using the GLOBOCAN 2022 database. The study further analyzes the past mortality patterns (2000–2022) and future cancer landscape of India by determining annual percent change (APC), through Multijoinpoint regression analysis. Findings: The five most prevalent cancers affecting both genders collectively account for 44% of cancer burden in India. Notably, females exhibit higher crude incidence (104.5) and crude mortality (64.2) rates compared to males (91.5 and 62.2), based on 0.676 billion females and 0.731 billion males’ populations in 2022. The middle-aged and geriatric-cohorts account the heaviest (70%) cancer burden with higher crude rates (315.9–543.1 incidents, 215.6–407.8 mortalities). Alarmingly, cancer-related mortalities have increased faster among females (1.2–4.4% APC) than males (1.2–2.4% APC) over the past decade, and are expected to continue rising over coming two decades. Interpretation: Approximately three out of every five individuals in India succumb to death following a cancer diagnosis, as per the GLOBOCAN 2022 incidence (1,413,316) to mortality (916,827) ratio. Childhood and reproductive age-group individuals bear the lowest risk of developing (0.12–2.4%) and dying (0.08–1.3%) from cancer compared to their middle-aged and geriatric counterparts, having highest risks of developing (8.3–10.3%) and dying (5.5–7.7%) from cancer. As the population of India transitions from the reproductive age group to the middle age and geriatric age group, the India is anticipated to witness the highest cancer burden of all-time in near future, potentially exacerbated by the looming epidemic. Funding: No funding received.
