You-qi chuyun (Aug 2022)
Risk for oil and gas import routes of China in the new era and its countermeasures
Abstract
As COVID-19 is superimposed with the great change of the world, the international geopolitical order is complex and changeable. The global energy system is reconstructed in an accelerating manner in the context of carbon neutrality, and stable energy imports are essential to ensure energy security of the state. China's oil and gas imports are highly dependent on maritime route, yet such dependency tends to increase. In 2019, maritime route contributed 90% imported crude oil and 62% imported natural gas of China, and 96% of the increase in oil import and 100% of the increase in gas import. In 2020, China's oil and gas imports continued growing, with the oil increased by 3 651×104 t and gas by 66×108 m3, including an increasing of 3 732×104 t oil and 93×108 m3 gas imported by sea, bridging the gap of the both decline of oil and gas imports by pipelines on the land. The key of maritime route lies in the South China Sea Shipping Lanes (SCSSL), while the uncertainty and instability of geopolitical environment in South China Sea are increasing at present. In the context of the continuous deepening of China-Russia energy cooperation, the pressure on oil supply from SCSSL has been eased to some degree, but the increase of LNG import has raised the importance of SCSSL for China's natural gas security. Limited to the routes structure, China has inadequate capability to respond to the sudden risk in SCSSL. Within one year dimension, the available capacity of routes other than SCSSL can only make up 5.2% and 18.2% of oil and natural gas under the condition with SCSSL interrupted. Therefore, suggestions were proposed to improve the emergency response capability for the oil and gas import routes system in terms of optimizing the layout of oil and gas import routes and strengthening the cooperation with oil and gas transit countries from the perspective of energy geopolitics.
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