Регионология (Sep 2023)
The Alternative for Germany and the Left Parties in the Eastern States: Transformation of Electoral Preferences
Abstract
Introduction. The separate existence of East Germany over the years has led to the formation of unique electoral preferences of citizens. In eastern federal states the Left as the heir to the Socialist Unity Party of Germany remained one of the leaders for a long time. However, in recent years its traditional electorate has increasingly begun to choose the Alternative for Germany. The aim of this article is to identify the main reasons for this shift in preferences in East Germany. Materials and Methods. The main materials were the results of the elections to the Bundestag and Landtags. The statistics illustrating the performance of the Left on the national average and separately in East Germany in the national elections since 2009 was processed with the help of comparative analysis, the same was done with regard to the subnational elections since 2009 and 2011. The results of the Alternative for Germany were evaluated from its inception in 2013. Additionally, the data was used on preferences among voters of various age groups, the rating of the National Democratic Party of Germany before and after the advent of the Alternative for Germany, as well as GDP per capita indicators. Results. It is confirmed that it was the Alternative for Germany that mainly occupied the former niche of the Left. The main reasons that comprehensively influenced electoral preferences include the generational change, the unsuccessful adaptation of the left forces to Western values, the unpopularity of anti-capitalist rhetoric, the presence of more influential opponents on key left-wing topics, the demand for conservative and opposition ideology (e.g. in migration policy), as well as the ability of right-wing populists to work with protest voters. Discussion and Conclusion. The decline in the ratings of the left has become a rather stable phenomenon in recent years, while the performance of the right-wing populists strongly depended on the reaction of the party to a particular political crisis. However, this was more about the general popularity of the Alternative for Germany, which did not imply real prerequisites for the return of the electorate to the Left. The results of this paper can be applied in expert-analytical and research activities aimed at explaining electoral processes.
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