Landslide risk assessment of a slope in Tijuana city, Mexico

Abstract

Context: Risk reduction and prevention of disasters events produced by landslides on urban slopes, requires an integral assessment considering conditioning and triggering natural and human factors. Such an assessment is a valuable prevention and mitigation tool for communities under risk and also for authorities involved in the process. Method: In this research, a general methodology for the assessment of landslides on an urban slope was studied and applied, considering the relationship between hazard and physical vulnerability in the zone of study. Hazard was determined by probabilistic methods, whereas vulnerability of the exposed elements was obtained taking into account two kinds of buildings and their spatial distribution, their structural integrity state, their foundation depth and the unstable terrain probable mass volume. Results: Safety factors were obtained under allowable levels to warrant stability of the slope under study, and valuation factors of the qualitative analysis indicate that the slope is unstable and that requires urgent maintenance. This confirms and validates the high probability of occurrence in the zone, obtained from historic records. Conclusions: It was found that landslide risk in the slope is high due to the high probability of its occurrence, with three possible movement directions that may impact on several buildings located in the zone. Assessment constitutes a work tool for institutions and authorities related with risk reduction due to landslides, as a way of prevent and mitigate disaster prone events.

Keywords

• amenaza, análisis de estabilidad, deslizamiento de ladera, riesgo, vulnerabilidad.