Combined climate change and dispersal capacity positively affect Hoplobatrachus chinensis occupancy of agricultural wetlands
Xiaoli Zhang,
Siti N. Othman,
Dallin B. Kohler,
Zhichao Wu,
Zhenqi Wang,
Amaël Borzée
Affiliations
Xiaoli Zhang
Laboratory of Animal Behaviour and Conservation, College of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Siti N. Othman
Laboratory of Animal Behaviour and Conservation, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Dallin B. Kohler
Laboratory of Animal Behaviour and Conservation, College of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Zhichao Wu
Security Office, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Zhenqi Wang
Laboratory of Animal Behaviour and Conservation, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Amaël Borzée
Laboratory of Animal Behaviour and Conservation, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R. China; IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group, Toronto, ON, Canada; Jiangsu Agricultural Biodiversity Cultivation and Utilization Research Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210014, P.R. China; Corresponding author
Summary: Global warming significantly impacts amphibian populations globally, and modeling helps understand these effects. Here, we used MaxEnt and MigClim models to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for Hoplobatrachus chinensis. Our results indicate that temperature is a key factor affecting H. chinensis distribution. Increasing temperatures positively correlated with habitat suitability, with suitable habitat expanding northward by 2060 while maintaining suitability in the southern parts of the range. We found a 25.18% overlap between the current potential suitable habitat of H. chinensis and agricultural wetlands. Our model indicated that H. chinensis might be able to track shifts in suitable habitats under climate change given a 15 km dispersal ability per generation. Climate change will likely expand suitable habitat for H. chinensis. Our predictions offer important guidance for the conservation of the species, especially for the integrated role of natural and agricultural wetlands such as rice paddies.
