Measuring resilience prospectively as the speed of affect recovery in daily life: a complex systems perspective on mental health
Anna Kuranova,
Sanne H. Booij,
Claudia Menne-Lothmann,
Jeroen Decoster,
Ruud van Winkel,
Philippe Delespaul,
Marc De Hert,
Catherine Derom,
Evert Thiery,
Bart P. F. Rutten,
Nele Jacobs,
Jim van Os,
Johanna T. W. Wigman,
Marieke Wichers
Affiliations
Anna Kuranova
University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, University Center Psychiatry (UCP) Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion Regulation (ICPE)
Sanne H. Booij
University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, University Center Psychiatry (UCP) Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion Regulation (ICPE)
Claudia Menne-Lothmann
Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, School of mental health and neuroscience (MHeNS), Maastricht University
Jeroen Decoster
University Psychiatric Centre Sint-Kamillus
Ruud van Winkel
KU Leuven, Department of Neurosciences, Center for Public Health Psychiatry, UPC KU Leuven
Philippe Delespaul
Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, School of mental health and neuroscience (MHeNS), Maastricht University
Marc De Hert
KU Leuven, Department of Neurosciences, Center for Public Health Psychiatry, UPC KU Leuven
Catherine Derom
Centre of Human Genetics, University Hospital Leuven, KU Leuven
Evert Thiery
Department of Neurology, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent University
Bart P. F. Rutten
Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, School of mental health and neuroscience (MHeNS), Maastricht University
Nele Jacobs
Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, School of mental health and neuroscience (MHeNS), Maastricht University
Jim van Os
Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, School of mental health and neuroscience (MHeNS), Maastricht University
Johanna T. W. Wigman
University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, University Center Psychiatry (UCP) Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion Regulation (ICPE)
Marieke Wichers
University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, University Center Psychiatry (UCP) Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion Regulation (ICPE)
Abstract Introduction There is growing evidence that mental disorders behave like complex dynamic systems. Complex dynamic systems theory states that a slower recovery from small perturbations indicates a loss of resilience of a system. This study is the first to test whether the speed of recovery of affect states from small daily life perturbations predicts changes in psychopathological symptoms over 1 year in a group of adolescents at increased risk for mental disorders. Methods We used data from 157 adolescents from the TWINSSCAN study. Course of psychopathology was operationalized as the 1-year change in the Symptom Checklist-90 sum score. Two groups were defined: one with stable and one with increasing symptom levels. Time-series data on momentary daily affect and daily unpleasant events were collected 10 times a day for 6 days at baseline. We modeled the time-lagged effect of daily unpleasant events on negative and positive affect after each unpleasant event experienced, to examine at which time point the impact of the events is no longer detectable. Results There was a significant difference between groups in the effect of unpleasant events on negative affect 90 min after the events were reported. Stratified by group, in the Increase group, the effect of unpleasant events on both negative (B = 0.05, p < 0.01) and positive affect (B = − 0. 08, p < 0.01) was still detectable 90 min after the events, whereas in the Stable group this was not the case. Conclusion Findings cautiously suggest that adolescents who develop more symptoms in the following year may display a slower affect recovery from daily perturbations at baseline. This supports the notion that mental health may behave according to the laws of a complex dynamic system. Future research needs to examine whether these dynamic indicators of system resilience may prove valuable for personalized risk assessment in this field.
