Predictive value of the random forest model based on bioelectrical impedance analysis parameter trajectories for short-term prognosis in stroke patients

Abstract

Abstract Background The short-term prognosis of stroke patients is mainly influenced by the severity of the primary disease at admission and the trend of disease development during the acute phase (1–7 days after admission). Objective The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between the bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) parameter trajectories during the acute phase of stroke patients and their short-term prognosis, and to investigate the predictive value of the prediction model constructed using BIA parameter trajectories and clinical indicators at admission for short-term prognosis in stroke patients. Methods A total of 162 stroke patients were prospectively enrolled, and their clinical indicators at admission and BIA parameters during the first 1–7 days of admission were collected. A Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM) was employed to identify different subgroups of longitudinal trajectories of BIA parameters during the first 1–7 days of admission in stroke patients. The random forest algorithm was applied to screen BIA parameter trajectories and clinical indicators with predictive value, construct prediction models, and perform model comparisons. The outcome measure was the Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at discharge. Results PA in BIA parameters can be divided into four separate trajectory groups. The incidence of poor prognosis (mRS: 4–6) at discharge was significantly higher in the “Low PA Rapid Decline Group” (85.0%) than in the “High PA Stable Group “ (33.3%) and in the “Medium PA Slow Decline Group “(29.5%) (all P < 0.05). In-hospital mortality was the highest in the “Low PA Rapid Decline Group” (60%) compared with the remaining trajectory groups (P < 0.05). Compared with the prediction model with only clinical indicators (Model 1), the prediction model with PA trajectories (Model 2) demonstrated higher predictive accuracy and efficacy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of Model 2 was 0.909 [95% CI 0.863, 0.956], integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI), 0.035 (P < 0.001), and net reclassification improvement (NRI), 0.175 (P = 0.031). Conclusion PA trajectories during the first 1–7 days of admission are associated with the short-term prognosis of stroke patients. PA trajectories have additional value in predicting the short-term prognosis of stroke patients.