Exploring possible futures or reinforcing the status-quo? The use of model-based scenarios in the Swiss energy industry

Abstract

Energy scenarios are often claimed to support decision-makers involved in the energy transition. However, an empirical understanding of how decision makers select, interpret, and use energy scenarios is largely missing. This study examined how high-level public utility executives in the energy sector, a key target audience of energy scenarios, perceive and interact with energy scenarios. Based on interviews with representatives of 20 Swiss utilities, we show that the use of scenarios is rarely part of a formalized process aimed at assisting decision-making processes. Instead, the selection of scenarios is often contingent on users’ perceptions of their legitimacy, credibility, and salience. While utility executives could rely on a wide variety of scenarios published by academic, corporate, and non-governmental organizations, they often focus on a limited set. Given the complexity of contemporary energy scenarios, which are often based on sophisticated energy system models, familiarity with publishing organizations and reporting styles is an important selection heuristic for users. This stands in contrast to the purpose and of stated key motivation of considering a broad range of plausible futures and their associated trade-offs. Our results suggest that to evaluate the impact of energy scenarios, social-scientific research also needs to consider user groups that are neither involved in participative modeling activities, nor collaborating with scenario developers in any other form. The usefulness of energy scenarios in these contexts and particularly their capacity to contribute to integrative deliberations on plausible and desirable energy futures is highly relevant, yet largely unknown.