Migracijske i etničke teme (Jun 2005)
Croatia’s Migration Potential – Micro-Analytic Aspects
Abstract
The authors set criteria for the selection of a model for measuring migration potential; they select and apply such a model to Croatia and determine the practical and scientific relevance of the Croatian case, especially its significance for the improvement of the chosen model. The authors concentrate on the application of Heinz Fassmann’s and Christiane Hintermann’s micro-analytic model for the estimation of East-Central Europe’s migration potential. After applying this model, they estimate Croatia’s total migration potential at 12.5%, i.e. 460,000 persons older than fourteen. The probable migration potential is estimated at 2.5%, i.e. 92,000 and the real migration potential at 0.4% of the population above fourteen, i.e. 14,700 persons. In Croatian case as well, the younger population (which can still utilise its labour capacity), as well as unemployed, unmarried and highly educated persons, are more likely to consider emigration. The data show also that the regions with the lowest share in GNP have the highest percentage of potential migrants and not the regions which are geographically the closest to potential immigration countries. The authors stress the necessity to integrate migration potential research models. The explanatory assumptions of migration potential research models, based on place utility and subjective expected utility, often overlap when used to interpret the data. Furthermore, the Croatian case shows that personal migration experience and the analytical mezzo level must be considered in order to gain an understanding of the creation of migration preferences.
