What water supply system research is needed in the face of a conceivable societal collapse?

Abstract

The world grapples with immediate crises like COVID-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, floods, droughts and wildfires. However, a longer-term crisis looms due to humanity's overstepping of planetary boundaries and its disruptive consequences. Growing awareness of the potential collapse of societies due to planetary boundary violations has prompted increased attention in the scientific literature. In the water sector, where infrastructure built today might persist during a future collapse, we must therefore ask ourselves how a (basic) level of water supply can be maintained in a collapsing society. This paper explores this question and proposes research directions to address it in the short to medium term. Despite the seeming remoteness of a societal collapse scenario, it is imperative to incorporate it urgently into water infrastructure research and planning. HIGHLIGHTS Environmentally induced societal collapse is an ignored risk for the water sector.; Research into potential consequences and strategies for deep adaptation are needed.; A four-stranded approach for this research is proposed, mirroring a prior one for research on worst-case climate change and systemic risks.;

Keywords

• deep adaptation
• risk matrix
• societal collapse
• water infrastructure
• water supply