Electrical Load Forecasting Models for Different Generation Modalities: A Review

Abstract

The intelligent management of power in electrical utilities depends on the high significance of load forecasting models. Since the industries are digitalized, power generation is supported by a variety of resources. Therefore, the forecasting accuracy of different models varies. The power utilities with different generation modalities (DGM) experience complexities and a noticeable amount of error in predicting future electrical consumption. To effectively manage the power flow with negligible power interruptions, a utility must utilize the forecasting tools to predict the future electricity demand with minimum error. Since the current literature supports individual and limited power sources involved in generation for load forecasting, thus the utilities with multiple power sources or DGM remain unexplored. Therefore, exploration of existing literature is required relating to analyzing the existing models which could be considered in load forecasting for DGM. This paper explores state-of-art methods recently utilized for electrical load forecasting highlighting the common practices, recent advances, and exposure of areas available for improvement. The review investigates the methods, parameters, and respective sectors considered for load forecasting. It performs in-depth analysis and discusses the strengths, weaknesses, and error percentages of models. It also highlights the peculiarities of methods used in residential, commercial, industrial, grid, and off-grid sectors aiming to help the researchers to appraise the common practices. Moreover, trends and research gaps are also discussed.

Keywords

• Electrical generation modality
• grid data-analytics
• isolated-grid load forecasting
• load forecasting
• machine learning
• power plant load forecasting