Earth's Future (Dec 2024)
Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0
- Julia L. Blanchard,
- Camilla Novaglio,
- Olivier Maury,
- Cheryl S. Harrison,
- Colleen M. Petrik,
- Denisse Fierro‐Arcos,
- Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros,
- Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz,
- Tyler D. Eddy,
- Ryan Heneghan,
- Kelsey Roberts,
- Jacob Schewe,
- Daniele Bianchi,
- Jerome Guiet,
- P. Daniel van Denderen,
- Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes,
- Xiao Liu,
- Charles A. Stock,
- Yannick Rousseau,
- Matthias Büchner,
- Ezekiel O. Adekoya,
- Cathy Bulman,
- William Cheung,
- Villy Christensen,
- Marta Coll,
- Leonardo Capitani,
- Samik Datta,
- Elizabeth A. Fulton,
- Alba Fuster,
- Victoria Garza,
- Matthieu Lengaigne,
- Max Lindmark,
- Kieran Murphy,
- Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh,
- Sowdamini S. Prasad,
- Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos,
- Jonathan C. Reum,
- Nina Rynne,
- Kim J. N. Scherrer,
- Yunne‐Jai Shin,
- Jeroen Steenbeek,
- Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats,
- Yan‐Lun Wu,
- Derek P. Tittensor
Affiliations
- Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Olivier Maury
- IRD University Montpellier Ifremer CNRS INRAE MARBEC Montpellier France
- Cheryl S. Harrison
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USA
- Colleen M. Petrik
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA
- Denisse Fierro‐Arcos
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Cape Town Cape Town South Africa
- Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystem Research Fisheries & Marine Institute Memorial University St. John's NL Canada
- Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystem Research Fisheries & Marine Institute Memorial University St. John's NL Canada
- Ryan Heneghan
- School of Environment and Science Griffith University Nathan QLD Australia
- Kelsey Roberts
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USA
- Jacob Schewe
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
- Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
- Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
- P. Daniel van Denderen
- DTU Aqua Technical University of Denmark Lyngby Denmark
- Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
- Xiao Liu
- NOAA OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA
- Charles A. Stock
- NOAA OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA
- Yannick Rousseau
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
- Ezekiel O. Adekoya
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Cathy Bulman
- CSIRO Environment Hobart TAS Australia
- William Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
- Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
- Marta Coll
- Ecopath International Initiative Barcelona Spain
- Leonardo Capitani
- Post‐Graduate Program in Ecology Bioscience Institute Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte Natal Brazil
- Samik Datta
- Population Modelling Group National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington New Zealand
- Elizabeth A. Fulton
- Centre for Marine Socioecology University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Alba Fuster
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM) ‐ CSIC. Passeig Maritim de Barcelona Barcelona Spain
- Victoria Garza
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USA
- Matthieu Lengaigne
- IRD University Montpellier Ifremer CNRS INRAE MARBEC Montpellier France
- Max Lindmark
- Department of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Lysekil Sweden
- Kieran Murphy
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM) ‐ CSIC. Passeig Maritim de Barcelona Barcelona Spain
- Sowdamini S. Prasad
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos
- Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Jonathan C. Reum
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center Seattle WA USA
- Nina Rynne
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Kim J. N. Scherrer
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Bergen Bergen Norway
- Yunne‐Jai Shin
- IRD University Montpellier Ifremer CNRS INRAE MARBEC Montpellier France
- Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative Barcelona Spain
- Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats
- Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Honolulu HI USA
- Yan‐Lun Wu
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology Dalhousie University Halifax NS Canada
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004402
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 12,
no. 12
pp. n/a – n/a
Abstract
Abstract There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.
Keywords
- global change
- climate projections
- marine ecosystem modeling
- future scenarios
- sustainable oceans
- fisheries
