Recent increase in the potential threat of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

Abstract

Abstract Conventionally, the threat of tropical cyclones (TCs) is often described by TC intensity. However, the damage caused by TCs is also strongly related to our forecasting ability, which is usually low for TCs with high intensification rates. Here, we challenge this intensity-only criterion and propose a concept of TC potential threat (PT) for the western North Pacific TCs by jointly clustering the TC lifetime maximum intensity and intensification rate. We show that TCs can be separated via an objective algorithm, and approximately 10% of all TCs pose a great PT and feature high forecast errors. Furthermore, the annual number of TCs with high PT has increased by 22% per decade over the past 41 years, and this trend is attributed to the rise in subsurface ocean temperatures. Our study provides a perspective on the TC threat and reveals its increase due to global warming and internal climate variability.