Study on the socioeconomic and climatic effects of forest fire incidence in the Changbai Mountain area based on a cross-classified multilevel model

Abstract

AbstractThe occurrence of forest fires is determined by fuel, climate and ignition sources at different temporal and spatial scales. However, most analyses are performed only on a single scale, and few comprehensive statistical analyses elaborate on the cross-scale interaction of fire drivers. Understanding the differential effects of socioeconomic and climatic factors on forest fire incidence across different administrative and climatic scales can provide new information for wildfire studies. In this study, we applied a cross-classified multilevel model with forest fire incidence data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer products (MODIS 14A1) to explore the relationship between the spatial distribution of fire incidence and socioeconomic and climatic factors at different levels and to estimate the effects of these drivers on forest fire incidence. Our results showed that the density of impervious surfaces, density of cropland, mean monthly precipitation, mean monthly temperature, density of primary gross domestic product, annual monthly average relative humidity, and annual monthly average precipitation at the county level, prefecture-level city and climatic levels had significant multilevel associations with forest fire incidence in the Changbai Mountain area. These findings will effectively support the development of forest fire administrative policies for specific regions.

Keywords

• Forest fire incidence
• different scales
• multilevel model
• spatial variation relationship
• ignition sources