Evaluating momentum in Brazil using quantile regressions

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this study was to measure the relationship between expected returns and capital gains overhang (CGO) (a proxy for the disposition effect) in the Brazilian financial market. It also investigated the ability of the disposition effect to induce momentum. Quantile regression allows the study of the importance of extreme values in the regression. In this way, it is possible to study the relationship between the disposition effect and the expected return between losing and winning stocks using data for the Brazilian financial market. This may help explain the conflicting results found in the literature when studying this relationship in other countries. This study contributes to the development of the topic of the relationship between the disposition effect and unrealized capital gains in the financial market. For this, we apply Fama-MacBeth regression and quantile regression models. Initially, we study the relationship between CGO and expected return. Subsequently, we investigate the ability of the disposition effect to generate the momentum effect at extreme quantiles of expected return (0.05th - losing stocks and 0.95th - winning stocks). We used a sample of 227 shares of companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3) and monthly historical series from January 2000 to October 2018. We found a significant and positive relationship between CGO and expected return across different levels of expected return, decreasing from the lowest to the highest quantile of expected return. This indicates that Brazilian investors, who are prone to the disposition effect, operate at the extreme quantiles of expected return.

Keywords

• prospect theory
• disposition effect
• momentum
• quantile regression
• uninformed investors