Resolving heterogeneous fluxes from tundra halves the growing season carbon budget

Abstract

Landscapes are often assumed to be homogeneous when interpreting eddy covariance fluxes, which can lead to biases when gap-filling and scaling up observations to determine regional carbon budgets. Tundra ecosystems are heterogeneous at multiple scales. Plant functional types, soil moisture, thaw depth, and microtopography, for example, vary across the landscape and influence net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes. With warming temperatures, Arctic ecosystems are changing from a net sink to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere in some locations, but the Arctic's carbon balance remains highly uncertain. In this study we report results from growing season NEE and CH4 fluxes from an eddy covariance tower in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska. We used footprint models and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to unmix eddy covariance observations into constituent land-cover fluxes based on high-resolution land-cover maps of the region. We compared three types of footprint models and used two land-cover maps with varying complexity to determine the effects of these choices on derived ecosystem fluxes. We used artificially created gaps of withheld observations to compare gap-filling performance using our derived land-cover-specific fluxes and traditional gap-filling methods that assume homogeneous landscapes. We also compared resulting regional carbon budgets when scaling up observations using heterogeneous and homogeneous approaches. Traditional gap-filling methods performed worse at predicting artificially withheld gaps in NEE than those that accounted for heterogeneous landscapes, while there were only slight differences between footprint models and land-cover maps. We identified and quantified hot spots of carbon fluxes in the landscape (e.g., late growing season emissions from wetlands and small ponds). We resolved distinct seasonality in tundra growing season NEE fluxes. Scaling while assuming a homogeneous landscape overestimated the growing season CO2 sink by a factor of 2 and underestimated CH4 emissions by a factor of 2 when compared to scaling with any method that accounts for landscape heterogeneity. We show how Bayesian MCMC, analytical footprint models, and high-resolution land-cover maps can be leveraged to derive detailed land-cover carbon fluxes from eddy covariance time series. These results demonstrate the importance of landscape heterogeneity when scaling carbon emissions across the Arctic.