On the reproduction number in epidemics

Abstract

This note provides an elementary derivation of the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number from the discrete Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model. The derived formulae match those derived from the continuous version of the model; however, the derivation from discrete model is a bit more intuitive. The MATLAB functions for its calculation are given. A real case example is considered and the results are compared with those obtained by the R0 and the EpiEstim software packages.

Keywords

• basic reproduction number
• effective reproduction number
• kermack–mckendrick epidemic model