Characterisation of Recent and Future Climatic Trends in the Region of Guelmim (Morocco)

Abstract

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is manifested by the increase in average surface atmospheric temperatures and a decrease in rainfall. The impacts are multiple, complex and differentiated from one region to another in the world. In the Guelmim region (southern Morocco), climate change is manifested by severe droughts and/or recurrent floods. The objective of this study is to characterize the recent and future climate variability in the Guelmim region based on time series of precipitation, the study period goes from 1985 to 2017, and from 2020 to 2099 using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).Results of SPI analysis indicate that the most notable droughts for their varying intensity, duration and frequency occurred during the 1992-94 and 1997-2000 periods. Future analysis indicates the study area will face several extended periods of drought and wet during 2020 to 2099. The results of this study show also the link between North Atlantic Oscillation and winter precipitation in Guelmim, which are associated with the negative phase of NAO. The purpose of the study is to have a good management of crops and water resources in Guelmim region and either to insure a sustainable management of environment.

Keywords

• guelmim
• drought
• spi
• nao
• flood