SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system

Abstract

In this paper we describe SEAS5, ECMWF's fifth generation seasonal forecast system, which became operational in November 2017. Compared to its predecessor, System 4, SEAS5 is a substantially changed forecast system. It includes upgraded versions of the atmosphere and ocean models at higher resolutions, and adds a prognostic sea-ice model. Here, we describe the configuration of SEAS5 and summarise the most noticeable results from a set of diagnostics including biases, variability, teleconnections and forecast skill. An important improvement in SEAS5 is the reduction of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias, which is accompanied by a more realistic El Niño amplitude and an improvement in El Niño prediction skill over the central-west Pacific. Improvements in 2 m temperature skill are also clear over the tropical Pacific. Sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the northern extratropics change due to increased ocean resolution, especially in regions associated with western boundary currents. The increased ocean resolution exposes a new problem in the northwest Atlantic, where SEAS5 fails to capture decadal variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, resulting in a degradation of DJF 2 m temperature prediction skill in this region. The prognostic sea-ice model improves seasonal predictions of sea-ice cover, although some regions and seasons suffer from biases introduced by employing a fully dynamical model rather than the simple, empirical scheme used in System 4. There are also improvements in 2 m temperature skill in the vicinity of the Arctic sea-ice edge. Cold temperature biases in the troposphere improve, but increase at the tropopause. Biases in the extratropical jets are larger than in System 4: extratropical jets are too strong, and displaced northwards in JJA. In summary, development and added complexity since System 4 has ensured that SEAS5 is a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system which continues to display a particular strength in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction.