Performance Evaluation of Multiple Machine Learning Models in Predicting Power Generation for a Grid-Connected 300 MW Solar Farm

Abstract

Integrating renewable energy sources (RES), such as photovoltaic (PV) systems, into power system networks increases uncertainty, leading to practical challenges. Therefore, an accurate photovoltaic (PV) power prediction model is required to provide essential data that supports smooth power system operation. Hence, the work presented in this paper compares and discusses the results of different machine learning (ML) techniques in predicting the power produced by the 300 MW Sakaka PV Power Plant in the north of Saudi Arabia. The validation of the presented work is performed using real-world operational data obtained from the specified solar farm. Several performance measures, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1 Score, and mean square error (MSE), are used in this work to evaluate the performance of the different ML approaches and determine the most precise prediction model. The obtained results show that the Support Vector Machine (SVM) with a Radial basis function (RBF) is the most effective approach for optimizing solar power prediction in large-scale solar farms.

Keywords

• machine learning
• neural network
• power prediction
• photovoltaic
• solar farm
• Saudi Arabia