National age-specific mortality trends for cervical and breast cancers in urban–rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021: a population-based analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background Cervical and breast cancers are among the top 4 leading causes of cancer-related mortality in women. This study aimed to examine age-specific temporal trends in mortality for cervical and breast cancers in urban and rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021. Methods Age-specific mortality data for cervical and breast cancers among Chinese women aged 20–84 years were obtained from China’s National Disease Surveillance Points system spanning the years 2009 to 2021. Negative binomial regression models were utilized to assess urban–rural differences in mortality rate ratios, while Joinpoint models with estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC) and slopes were employed to compare temporal trends and the acceleration of mortality rates within different age groups. Results From 2009 to 2021, there was a relative increase in age-specific mortality associated with the two cancers observed in rural areas compared with urban areas. A rising trend in the screening age of 35–64 [AAPC: 4.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5–7.6%, P = 0.026] for cervical cancer was noted in rural areas, while a stable trend (AAPC: − 0.7%, 95% CI − 5.8 to 4.6%, P = 0.78) was observed in urban areas. As for breast cancer, a stable trend (AAPC: 0.3%, 95% CI − 0.3 to 0.9%, P = 0.28) was observed in rural areas compared to a decreasing trend (AAPC: − 2.7%, 95% CI − 4.6 to − 0.7%, P = 0.007) in urban areas. Urban–rural differences in mortality rates increased over time for cervical cancer but decreased for breast cancer. Mortality trends for both cervical and breast cancers showed an increase with age across 4 segments, with the most significant surge in mortality observed among the 35–54 age group across urban and rural areas, periods, and regions in China. Conclusions Special attention should be given to women aged 35–54 years due to mortality trends and rural–urban disparities. Focusing on vulnerable age groups and addressing rural–urban differences in the delivery of cancer control programs can enhance resource efficiency and promote health equity.

Keywords

• Cervical cancer
• Breast cancer
• Age-specific mortality
• Trend
• Urban–rural difference
• Joinpoint model