Modeling Residential Water Consumption in Amman: The Role of Intermittency, Storage, and Pricing for Piped and Tanker Water

Abstract

Jordan faces an archetypal combination of high water scarcity, with a per capita water availability of around 150 m3 per year significantly below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 m3, and strong population growth, especially due to the Syrian refugee crisis. A transition to more sustainable water consumption patterns will likely require Jordan’s water authorities to rely more strongly on water demand management in the future. We conduct a case study of the effects of pricing policies, using an agent-based model of household water consumption in Jordan’s capital Amman, in order to analyze the distribution of burdens imposed by demand-side policies across society. Amman’s households face highly intermittent piped water supply, leading them to supplement it with water from storage tanks and informal private tanker operators. Using a detailed data set of the distribution of supply durations across Amman, our model can derive the demand for additional tanker water. We find that integrating these different supply sources into our model causes demand-side policies to have strongly heterogeneous effects across districts and income groups. This highlights the importance of a disaggregated perspective on water policy impacts in order to identify and potentially mitigate excessive burdens.

Keywords

• household water consumption
• intermittent supply
• water tankers
• socio-hydrology
• hydro-economics
• agent-based model
• water scarcity
• demand-side policies
• consumer surplus
• long-term sustainability
• Jordan