Investigating Changes in Natural Gas Demand across Great Britain for Domestic Heating Using Daily Data: 2018 to 2024

Abstract

This study analyses data from natural gas combination boilers across a 6-year timeframe, exploring how demand for space heating and hot water have both changed over time, and highlights the impact of factors such as external temperature and the UK energy price cap. The results show that there has been a significant decrease in annual space heating and hot water demand since 2021. Space heating typically contributes 88% of the total annual gas demand of the boilers, with hot water contributing the other 12%. For the same mean temperature across the fourth quarter (8.5 °C), 2018 had a daily mean energy demand of 50.4 kWh, whereas the 2022 value was 41.4 kWh. This 9.0 kWh (18%) difference of the daily mean for Q4 suggests a shift in consumer demand influenced by other factors such as the energy price cap. This analysis provides additional understanding of how consumer energy demand for heating continues to evolve and invites further studies to be completed on future trends of energy demand for both space heating and hot water. Here, we also highlight the benefit of considering space heating and hot water as separate demands, as this provides additional insights and is something the paper helps to advocate for.

Keywords

• natural gas
• hot water
• space heating
• energy demand
• domestic energy
• consumer energy