Coulomb stress evolution along the Kongur Extensional System since 1895 and present seismic hazard

Abstract

The present-day tectonic activities on the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau are mainly E-W oriented extensions, among which the Kongur Extensional System (KES) plays an important role in the internal expansion of the Pamir. As the largest earthquake since Taxkorgan earthquakes in 1895 and 1896, the Aketao earthquake occurred on the Muji fault on the northern portion of the KES in 2016. Since then, the trend of seismic activities along the KES has been paid much attention to. Based on the visco elastic layered lithosphere model, we calculate the co-seismic and post-seismic stress changes caused by five historical earthquakes on the KES and its adjacent areas since 1895, and analyze the interaction among strong earthquakes. The results show that all of the historical earthquakes after 1895 occurred in the areas where the co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress increased. Coulomb stress loading at the hypocenters of the 1896 Taxkorgan earthquake, the 1974 Markansu earthquake and the 2016 Aketao earthquake were 0.251 MPa, 0.013 MPa and 0.563 MPa, respectively. The three earthquakes were catalyzed by such variations. The historical earthquakes increased the stress state on most segments of the Southern Kungai Mountain fault and Kongur fault along the KES. In particular, we can identify 2 visible earthquake gaps with increasing seismic hazard formed on the Qimugan segment and Bulunkou segment of the KES. The Qimugan section and the Bulunkou section are located at the fault transition zone with concentrated stress and high extension rate, so great attention should be paid to their seismic hazard at present day. Keywords: Kongur extensional system, Coulomb stress, Stress accumulation, Seismic hazard